I know we have all sorts of excitement relative to the halving in crypto land, but to me the exciting stuff is what happens technically. Here we can see the sideways consolidation, and within it the hourly wedge. As one would expect, BTC is extremely volatile. I compare it to trading crude or maybe even silver. You really have to step out a level and trade the scenario rather than get caught up in technical minutia.
First, we can see if we traded this on the confirmed break of the TL on the hourly, it traded lower and retested the lower TL. Nasty! If we scan the daily, however, we stayed with the rectangle.
Yes, WSPEC is not in the right place, like it wasn’t for crude. However, we have been embedded since early February here, so the indicator may not be all the instructive. I think there is a decent chance it can run back to 74k here, but there are plenty of gotchas here. The risk:reward is about 1:2, and that doesn’t really qualify as asymmetric. That said, if some of you want to participate in a big halving blowoff scenario, maybe you buy a half position here and withhold half in the event we retest the weekly TL around 55k? I don’t know- just giving you some trade ideas here.
Lastly, on the weekly, we can see my subdividing wave 3 here, but that’s all trash if we confirm a break of the weekly TL. WSPEC looks ominous here but I would again point out that did in early 2021 as well before doubling in price. All in all I would prefer to see it retest the weekly TL for a legit asymmetric setup.