BTC and Crude

Something for everyone

The summer season for traders has commenced. What does that mean? It means the depth of market has thinned and even though the range of trade may not be that big, in some markets like Nasdaq, it’s prone to mini flash crashes due to lack of liquidity. Just something to be aware of.

Bitcoin

First, BTC has broken the daily uptrend from 74k. Secondly, it’s made lower highs and lower lows since then. Under normal circumstances, the declining trendline combined with the selling area would make an ideal area to short it, or at the very least, cut it. Unfortunately, it’s not normal circumstances. We still have the global liquidity index going firing off and that’s probably good for another month or so based on the 3 month delay. I’ve fully credited Julian Bittel before at Global Macro Investor, but if you’re new to my stuff, you may not be aware of the work that those guys developed around the GLI. Feel free to visit Realvision or look them up on Youtube. Anyway, I wouldn’t short it here- we haven’t even discussed the 4-year cycle, which certainly seems tardy. But, just when it seems sluggish, it goes on a crazy tear. If we break 109, I still think it’s headed towards $125k.

Crude

We have the trifecta here for the shorts. We have resistance from the prior support area, we have the declining TL, and the sellers. It’s a good low risk high reward type of setup, with the possibility of round trip down to 60.

As always, I monitor closes/fresh highs above the TL to tell me I’m wrong.